Published: February 06, 2008 06:14 pm         

Special Senate election win for Republicans may alter landscape

Might impact gambling vote, Beshear's political clout

FRANKFORT — The violent thunderstorms that swept across Kentucky on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning weren’t the only storm changing the landscape. Republican Brandon Smith’s upset victory in a special Senate election in southeastern Kentucky Tuesday also changed the political landscape in Frankfort. The question Wednesday was how much.



Smith defeated Democrat Scott Alexander who had the backing of Gov. Steve Beshear and Lt. Gov Daniel Mongiardo in the race to replace Mongiardo in the district covering Bell, Harlan, Leslie and Perry counties despite a Democratic advantage in registration and at least two trips to the district on Alexander’s behalf by Beshear. Mongiardo campaigned extensively for Alexander.



The win gives Republicans a 22-15-1 advantage in the state Senate which Beshear had promised during the gubernatorial campaign to take back from Republican control. More immediately, Smith said during the campaign he would oppose expanded gambling and several lawmakers and political observers were saying Wednesday Smith’s election effectively killed gambling’s chances of passage in this session of the General Assembly.



Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, opposes expanded gambling and its chances in that chamber were considered questionable at best. But now, the outcome of Smith’s race may have weakened it in the Democratically controlled House.



“Why would anyone take that vote in the House and make the people in their district mad when it’s not going to pass down there in the Senate,” asked Rep. C. B. Embry, R-Morgantown.



Smith’s election, said Charles Siler, R-Williamsburg, “will keep (House) leadership from exposing their membership to a vote on the issue. I don’t think some of the Democrats want to be exposed on that issue.”



It’s an election year this fall for all House members and half the Senate. Some who previously may have feared the governor might campaign against those who opposed him on gambling might not now, according to former Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman and political consultant Danny Briscoe who ran the campaign to pass the lottery amendment 20 years ago.



Briscoe said legislators from districts where gambling isn’t popular might wonder “if he couldn’t elect that guy (Alexander) with all that effort, what’s he going to do to me? Why should I be afraid of him?”



Briscoe called the loss “devastating and embarrassing” for Beshear because he put so much effort into electing Alexander in a district Beshear carried in both the primary and general elections for governor. It will be difficult for the administration to blame Alexander, Briscoe said, because the administration picked him to run for Mongiardo’s old seat, campaigned for him and the party spent a lot of money on his behalf.



Mongiardo disputed that interpretation, saying it was a close race that wasn’t decided on the gambling issue.



“It wasn’t a referendum on gambling,” Mongiardo said. “This was two people running against each other and there were a lot of issues discussed. The outcome was close – two counties went one way and two another – so I don’t think these can be linked together.”



But Smith campaigned on his opposition to gambling and ran ads criticizing Alexander for his support of the measure.



“I’m not for the issue and my district knows that,” Smith said Tuesday night. “Gambling became a very big issue in the race and the people thought the same way about it as I do.”



Another Senator, Democrat Ray Jones from Pikeville, seemed to wonder out loud if he could support a gambling amendment after Smith’s election, saying his grandfather was a well-known Baptist preacher and it would be a difficult vote for him. Wednesday, Jones said he hasn’t decided how he might vote on the issue, and won’t until he sees the final bill.



“I don’t think any responsible legislator can commit to vote for something until he’s seen what’s in the bill,” Jones said. “Until I see the legislation that comes out of the House, I’m not prepared to say I’m for or against it.”



Senate Minority Leader Ed Worley, D-Richmond, said Tuesday’s election doesn’t spell doom for a gambling bill.



“I think the overwhelming sentiment among our members is to put it on the ballot,” Worley said.



Williams, however, said at best Beshear lost one vote for expanded gambling with Smith’s win over Alexander and noted Jones’ comments, saying if Beshear hadn’t lost that vote, Jones is at least teetering.



“And I’d say he probably weakened a bunch of votes and resolve in the House,” Williams said. He said support for gambling may grow if lawmakers can’t find a way to avoid painful cuts in the budget proposed by Beshear. “The budget situation has a greater impact on gambling than any other factor,” he said, including the Tuesday special election.



The special election result may also hamper any effort in the House to increase the cigarette tax or possibly other taxes in order to find money to avoid steep cuts in education and social services.



Williams said Beshear, who said during his campaign and in his State of the Commonwealth speech that he does not favor raising taxes, “is not going to get a tax through the House that he doesn’t support.”



“Considering his recent activity (in the 30th Senate District) you can’t anticipate very many people will want to vote on a tax increase that he’s against and have him visit his district this fall,” Williams said.



Beshear was traveling Wednesday, visiting storm damaged areas and requests for comment on the election through his press office weren’t returned. But Chief of Staff Jim Cauley said Alexander’s loss represented “just one vote and I don’t think that issue will be decided on just one vote.”



He said legislators also shouldn’t interpret the loss as a diminution of the governor’s political power and ability to influence voters this fall.



RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach himat rellis@cnhi.com.